“Lead, not Leave?”

Mark Carney (the banker/economist) has put Canada into a “technical” recession as explained here. See how the former PBO (parliamentary budget officer) described the federal government’s fiscal outlook here. He was replaced by a former classmate, Anette Ryan.

Since taking office, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has committed billions of dollars in foreign aid, defense assistance, and international development to various countries. Canada’s foreign aid spans global initiatives, with the largest allocations historically going to countries such as Ethiopia, Haiti, and Tanzania. [1, 2, 3]

Major recent international funding commitments under Carney’s administration include:

  • Ukraine: Nearly $22 billion in multi-faceted assistance has been committed since 2022, including a $270 million military aid package.
  • Haiti & The Caribbean: Over $100 million in security funding—including $60 million to curb armed violence and transnational crime.
  • Gaza and the West Bank: $47 million in new aid allocated for Palestinian territories alongside Canada’s formal recognition of the Palestinian state.
  • Global Initiatives: $207 million announced at the UN General Assembly for children’s nutrition, biodiversity, and climate change. [1, 2, 3]

[Track ongoing international assistance spending or review individual aid datasets directly through Global Affairs Canada.]

Canada is bleeding Alberta dry while not allowing Alberta’s resources to get to market.

While Alberta does not directly transfer provincial tax revenue to the federal government, individual and corporate taxpayers pay federal taxes directly to Ottawa. On a net basis, Albertans have historically contributed tens of billions of dollars more to the federal treasury annually than they receive back in federal spending and services. [1, 2]

The exact amount of this net contribution fluctuates annually based on the economy, but recent long-term data outlines the scale: [1, 2]

  • Total Net Contribution: Over the last two decades, Albertans have sent an average of over $23 billion more each year to Ottawa than they receive in return. [1]
  • Cumulative Totals: Between 2007 and 2024, Albertans made an aggregate net contribution of $285.1 billion. [1]
  • Equalization: Though Alberta does not receive equalization payments, a portion of federal taxes paid by Albertans (roughly $3 billion per year) funds the national equalization program. [1, 2]

The disproportionate net contribution is driven by Alberta’s younger population, high employment rates, and higher average incomes compared to the rest of Canada. [1]

Prime Minister Carney’s recently released list of five projects—which the government deems to be in the national interest and will expedite—doesn’t include a new oil pipeline for western Canada in general or Alberta in particular. The reason given was that no private developer stepped forward to finance or build one. But the reason for that is not a mystery: Justin Trudeau’s damaging energy policies continue to drive away oil and gas investment even though his successor campaigned on a different, more pragmatic approach. It’s no wonder Albertans are frustrated.

Promising to make Canada the world’s leading “energy superpower,” the Carney government in the spring introduced Bill C-5, the “Building Canada Act,” to give the federal cabinet sweeping powers to circumvent existing laws and regulations for projects deemed to be in the “national interest.” In effect, cabinet and the prime minister are empowered to pick winners and losers based on vague criteria and priorities. But while specific projects will be expedited, so far nothing has been done to undo the damaging federal policies that have hamstrung Canada’s energy sector over the last decade.

Trudeau-era changes to the regulatory system for large infrastructure projects included: Bill C-69 (the federal “Impact Assessment Act”); the West Coast tanker ban (as spelled out in federal Bill C-48); and the federal cap imposed exclusively on oil and gas emissions. These have hindered energy investment and development and impeded prosperity, not only in energy-producing provinces, but across the country.

The Energy East and Eastern Mainline pipelines from Alberta and Saskatchewan to the east coast would have expanded Canada’s access to European markets. But the Trudeau government rendered the projects (Energy East and the Eastern Mainline) economically unprofitable by introducing new regulatory hurdles that ultimately forced TransCanada to withdraw from the project.

A year after taking office, the Trudeau government simply cancelled the Northern Gateway pipeline, an already approved $7.9 billion project that would have transported crude oil from Alberta to the B.C. coast, thus expanding Canada’s access to Asian markets. As for Trans Mountain, the one pipeline project that did survive the Trudeau years, after the private investor was frightened off by regulatory hurdles and delays and the federal government took over, costs sky-rocketed to $34 billion—more than six times the original estimate.

With policies like these still in place, it’s no wonder investors aren’t lining up to put big money into Canadian oil and gas. Just how great the discouragement has been is indicated by the 56 per cent inflation-adjusted decline in overall investment in the oil and gas sector between 2014 and 2023 (from $84.0 billion to $37.2 billion).

That decline in investment has had and will continue to have big consequences for the western provinces, particularly Alberta, where energy is a key part of the economy. But it would be a mistake to think the costs are limited to Alberta. From 2007 to 2022, Albertans’ net contribution to federal finances (total federal taxes they paid minus federal money spent on or transferred to them) was $244.6 billion. A strong Alberta helps keep taxes lower and fund public services across Canada.

Here is a list of cancelled energy projects in Alberta under the Trudeau Liberals. While an MOU has been signed with Alberta, the chances of a pipeline getting built to the west coast is slim to none because Carney has given veto power to Premier Eby of B.C. (who has made it perfectly clear that that will not happen on his watch) and indigenous chiefs who have already convinced a Trudeau appointed judge in Alberta to not allow the counting of signatures on a petition. They are also pressuring the RCMP to launch an investigation into Danielle Smith for treason because she is allowing a referendum to proceed. (See here for that.)

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